The Japanese birth rate by 2025 will likely be the lowest since 1899, when such statistics began to be kept, according to The Asahi Shimbun newspaper, citing its own calculations based on statistical data.
According to the newspaper’s forecast, the number of births in 2025 will be 667 542, compared to 686 173 in 2024. The Asahi Shimbun notes that this forecast only includes children born to Japanese citizens within the country. Official statistics for 2025 are expected in June, and preliminary data, which includes information on foreign residents and Japanese born abroad, will be published in February.
The demographic situation is developing significantly worse than previously forecast by Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Thus, in 2023, the average forecast for 2025 was for the birth of 749 000 children. The estimate cited by The Asahi Shimbun newspaper is significantly lower than even the most pessimistic scenario, which projected the birth of 681 000 children.
In recent years, Japan has seen record low birth rates, accompanied by an aging society. This is leading to a shrinking working-age population and a labor shortage.
